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Predictions for 2015

  1. Peer-to-peer lending will arrange 2.5billion in new loans
  2. RateSetter to overtake Funding Circle in terms of arranged loans
  3. Funding Circle to overtake Zopa in terms of active loans
  4. Several existing providers will exit the market
  5. There will be a change in ownership of at least one provider

Other predictions

Tick1. Peer-to-peer lending will arrange 2.5billion in new loans

In 2014 in excess of 1.6billion of new loans were arranged and we predict this will increase to 2.5billion, but at a lower growth rate than for previous years.

2. RateSetter to overtake Funding Circle in terms of arranged loans

RateSetter has been successful in its growth and we predict it will overtake Funding Circle in 2015 in terms of loans they have arranged.  We predict, however, they will still have a much smaller loan book than Funding Circle.

This was close, but Funding Circle still managed to keep ahead of RateSetter.

Tick3. FundingCircle to overtake Zopa in terms of active loans

We first predicted this in 2013 but we predict this come to pass in the first quarter of 2015.

 

Tick4. Several existing providers will exit the market

The continuing competitive pressure will see some peer-to-peer companies close and exit the market.  Lat year an increasing number of companies effectively exited the market.  Wonga's peer-to-peer offering didn't last a year within the sector.

There were several companies exiting for various reasons, including TrustBuddy, Invest and Borrow and Fruitful.

Tick5. There will be a change in ownership of at least one provider

The continuing competitive pressure will see other peer-to-peer companies merge or close.  In the light of discussions between Santander and Funding Circle, will a big name company take over one of the leading P2P companies?

While none of the leading UK peer-to-peer companies were bought out, Funding Circle itself took over European lender Zencap.